Update September 22, 2020

We had our only trade stopped out yesterday, September 22nd, 2020. In honour of the equinox, my photo is of Stonehenge.

Let’s take a look at a chart…

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UDN

This is the symbol that I made an error not getting out sooner as detailed yesterday.

Not sure why I did not include the fact that we were stopped out also. As they say, it doesn’t rain without pouring.

The high of $21.37 anchored the trailing stop at $20.86 which was finally reached.

The details are as follows:

$20.86 – $20.67 (trade price) = .19 X 1200 shares = $228.00 profit

The updated portfolio = $142,625.10

The chart shows that the price has continued on down. It will be worth having a look at the chart of UDN’ s inverse, UUP.

That’s it for this evening.

TTFN,

Charles

True Confession September 21st, 2020

I indicated in the last instalment that I had made an error and would be confessing today.

Here it is. The only open trade we have currently is the symbol UDN. This is the stock market proxy for the Dollar Index declining (meaning a basket of global currencies is strengthening against the U.S. Dollar).

In the process that we adhere to like limpets, the exit from a trade is as the result of the trailing stop being hit.

There is one other way, which inexcusably, I missed.

Let’s take a look at the chart.

UDN

Just as a quick aside, the weakness displayed today almost took us out. The stop is anchored at $20.86. Maybe tomorrow – exciting!

The key focal point is a black vertical line. That line runs through the high attained by the price. It also carves through the ROC, WHICH IS NOT AT A HIGH. This is a divergence…a warning.

Traders have different processes for divergences. Some will take profits, others will tighten stops. They don’t close out the trade immediately because it is only a warning. All is well in the world could be restored by the ROC moving back in lock step with the price.

My process is to draw a trend line and get out of the trade if that trend line is closed below (in this case).

You can see where I should have exited if I had had my wits about me.

Since the stop is so close to the low of today, I will leave things as they are and let the trailing stop do its work, if it feels so inclined.

The bottom line is we should have been out at a larger profit than the one we will realize if the stop is triggered.

I’m afraid that is life in the fast lane.

Any questions, please drop them in the comments section.

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round – Up to September 18th, 2020

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The Round – Up is upon us. It is the time when we look at charts of all the symbols involved in our exercise as we wend our way to the expiry of 2020.

During the week the only entries to this blog are the actual trades as they take place and their details: position size, risk management, etc.

The portfolio currently sits at $142,917.10. This represents a gain of a little over 42% since January 1st, 2020. This is quite good. Especially since there is always a risk when doing this sort of thing live – so to speak – that you will end up with a lot of egg on your face.

I want to say once more that because the markets move in explosive spurts, we may still be sitting at this level at the end of 2020. We follow the process we set out and let the markets come to us. We don’t force anything.

Our short position in oil represented by SCO was stopped out earlier in the week leaving us with one open position: UDN.

Let’s start there…

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UDN

UDN rises as the U.S. Dollar weakens against a basket of global currencies.

We have had this trade for some time. Take a look at the resistance line at $20.48. The blue EMA (21) was above the green EMA (55) indicating by one of our definitions of trend that we have an uptrend. We trade with the trend, consequently we are looking for a trigger to the upside. That trigger is either the red EMA (8) or the price crossing above the blue EMA. The price crosses below the blue and then pops back up – our trigger. We have resistance at $20.48 preventing us from placing a trade immediately. We don’t want to enter a trade and then have it bounce off resistance. We wait for a CLOSE above the resistance level and enter a stop-buy just above that. This was at $20.67.

Our trailing stop was placed .51 under the trade price at support. Where, if broken, we are probably wrong and will be automatically taken out of the trade.

The trailing stop has followed the price up and when it created a high at $21.37, our stop was anchored at $20.86. Since we bought in at $20.67, even if the price totally collapses at this point, we are profitable and therefore risk free.

I have made an error with this trade. We should already be out of it. I will confess my sins tomorrow in full gory detail.

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

SSO

The SSO mimics the rise in the S&P 500. We were stopped out and the price by crossing the green EMA looks like it might be heading in the other direction.

This is when we look at the inverse of the SSO, the SDS to see if there is a trade for us there.

To the chart, Robin…

SDS

It is always interesting to compare the charts that represent the opposite or inverse of one another. Take a couple of minutes with them, I am going to grab a coffee.

The SDS rises as the S&P declines. We will keep an eye on both sides of this battle in the coming days. There maybe a trade in there for us at some point.

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

UGL

The markings of a recent trade have been left on the chart in case you find them useful.

For us to enter a new trade in UGL, we need our EMAs to do their work and a CLOSE above resistance at $77.07. The high of $83.85 represented overhead supply at one point. It has been dissipating with the sideways price movement.

There is much noise in the trading world that gold is going to the moon, Alice. Well, we are staying glued right here in the world of trades and actually wait for our process to tell us the moon beckons.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

UCO

Not much to say here. We are looking at the long side of oil with this chart. We were stopped out of the short side earlier in the week at a small loss thanks to the trailing stop. You can scroll for details.

20 Year Treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

TBT

As you cast your eye on the right hand side of this chart you can see that the EMAs have bunched together – not social distancing at all. We are on the edge of our seats wondering which way the red EMA will go. The red will go first because it is the shortest and therefore most mimics the price itself.

We have a black horizontal line representing resistance and a red horizontal line doing the same for support.

Coming out of a bunching, EMAs generally get right down to work telling us what they think. For that reason I have shown the line that I need a CLOSE above to spring like a panther as is my wont into action.

If the red EMA (or price) crosses the red horizontal line, it would probably behoove us to take a look at the inverse of TBT.

That just about does it for this week.

I have an in-depth trading course launching soon. For an outline, please drop me a line at: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com.

And, once again, for a deeper look at how we conjure the magic above, click here:

https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

TTFN,

Charles

Market Close September 16th, 2020

It is with sad tidings that I report to you tonight. Unfortunately we were stopped out of SCO, the ETF that represents oil declining.

Let’s take a look at the chart and then the details…

SCO

We were triggered into a trade based on our rules. The difference was we made use of the exception and got in when the blue was still below the green. The exception being that the ROC is above 0.

I am hereby cancelling that exception.

The high that you see was set at $19.64. Our trailing stop was placed at $3.02 under the purchase price. Consequently the stop was anchored at $16.62, which was triggered today for a loss.

We purchased at $17.27. Our loss is as follows:

$17.27 – $16.62 = .65 X 800 shares = (-$520).

The loss adjusts our portfolio down to: $142, 397.10

That was painful, but you can see how the trailing stop took out some of the sting.

And as you know, if the symbol we are looking at is starting to look like a short sell, we look at the inverse, which in this case is UCO. This is the ETF that mimics oil rising. There is no trade there. We will look at it in the Round-Up if nothing changes there in tomorrow’s session.

If you have any questions, please drop me a line at: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com.

That’s it from me.

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round – Up to September 11th, 2020

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It is that most exciting part of the week: the Round-up. I know you are both as excited as I am, so let’s get started. I usually kick things off with the Big Lad: the S&P 500, but let’s mix things up a little and start with the open positions.

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

The Dollar Index is an arm wrestle between the U.S. Dollar and a weighted basket of global currencies.

If the price moves up, the U.S Dollar is strengthening, if down, the basket is in ascendency.

Our open position is in UDN which represents the U.S. dollar weakening versus the basket.

UDN

Our position in UDN was opened sometime ago. If you are curious you can scroll down for the date, etc.

The trailing stop is .51 behind the trade price. It has followed the price as it moved up. Once it stopped moving up, the trailing stop anchored at that price.

The high since purchase is $21.37. This means that the stop is anchored at $20.86. We purchased at $20.67. It also means that if the price falls causing us to be stopped out at $20.86, we would still have a profit. This trade is currently risk free, which is also known as a beautiful thing.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

SCO

As you can see from the chart above, the price closed above resistance and we put in a stop-buy just above the high of that close. We were triggered in at $17.27 with a trailing stop just under support at $3.02 lower than the trade.

The most recent high was $19.64, anchoring our stop at $16.62.

As with UDN, we are still in this trade, but with a bit more needed to become risk free. You will, however, notice that the move up has taken some of the risk premium off the table. We had a risk of $3.02, it is now .65 per share.

I take no view about the prospects for oil. As I have said, if you want to become a more consistent trader, there is a requirement to take all trades your process kicks out. If you do not, you have left the world of trades and entered the trading world: a haphazard place filled with uncertainty and doubt. Don’t do it!

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

SSO

The stop out point for a recent trade is still showing on the chart. The blue EMA is still above the green EMA, which in this simple demonstration equals uptrend.

The price has pushed down below the blue EMA. If it crosses back above, we shall be on alert as some of our process will have been covered. The last bit will have to be a close above resistance. This is represented by the high around $85. If, however, any EMA crosses below the green EMA, we shall have a look at the inverse of the SSO, the SDS.

In the meantime, we shall demonstrate one of the key traits of a profitable trader: patience.

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

UGL

I have left the markings from a recent trade on the chart. Much like the S&P, the price fell below the 21 EMA (blue). If that should change – and it might, because we are still in an uptrend – we would need a close above the resistance at $77.07 to cause us to spring panther-like into action.

20 year Treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

To the chart…

TBT

I know, I know, 20 year treasuries are hardly a pulse quickener. I have selected instruments that cover a broad swathe of the market. The cylinders of the market engine are not all up – or down – at the same time. Economic factors impact each of our chosen in different ways. They are not all correlated. They don’t all move up and down at the same time, with the same intensity. This means that there is always somewhere for us to place a trade. I didn’t want you guys sitting around for too long with nothing to do – you might do something stupid.

The chart above shows us that the EMAs are having a meeting and will make a decision as to which way to go. If the red EMA (8) or the price separated from the rest of the pack to the downside, we shall look to the inverse and see if something has developed there.

Actually, I don’t usually wait. I take a look, like now…

To the chart, Robin…

UBT

Here is the inverse of TBT, the ETF representing the down of the 20 year treasuries. UBT, as you can see is in an uptrend. The price retreated below the 21 EMA (blue). Should the price rise above the blue and then close above resistance, we would switch our attention from TBT to UBT.

Again, patience…

The portfolio that started January 1st, 2020 at the sum of $100,000 is now: $142,917.10. A gain of a little over 42%. I don’t annualise this because it implies that we can keep up the same rate until the end of the year.

We focus on our process and whatever comes out of the end of that sausage grinder, so be it. The market moves in an explosive manner. The comforting averaging that many resort to is a waste of time.

Our position is that we could be at this same level come the end of the year, or we could drop back – so be it. We don’t push things. We let the market and our trades come to us.

If you need a better understanding of some of the concepts mentioned here, take a look at my book.

https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

I also offer at this time a free no-obligations chat on the phone regarding your trading and any challenges you maybe having. No obligations on your part.

This window only opens once and awhile.

Copy and paste to book a call.

https://fb.com/book/blackpanthertrading/

or if that link doesn’t work, drop me a line at:

charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles

Market Close September 8th, 2020

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A tad behind with this update. As mentioned in the Weekly Round-Up, the short side of oil represented capably by the ETF SCO was all set for a buy. We had a stop-buy in at $17.27, which was a few cents over the high of the candle that sealed the deal.

Chart, please…

SCO

You can see the green candle to the right of the chart and our stop – buy level. The trade was then triggered during the day of the 8th.

Details:

$14,000 (10% of portfolio) / $17.27 = 810.65, rounded to 800 shares

Trailing stop set at $3.02 under purchase price X 800 shares = $2,416 risk (<2% of portfolio).

Our trade is open at this point having met all the conditions of our process including capital allocation and risk management.

God Speed, little trade!

Any questions, comments, drop me a line at: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round – Up to September 4th, 2020

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Alrighty, then, let’s get started. We don’t usually go week to week to week with nothing in between. But it has been that kind of time.

Portfolio update: We started January 1st, 2020 with $100,000. We now (after updating for the trade close out at the end of the week) is now: $142,917.10.

While this is a nice return, I want to remind you that market moves are explosive and unpredictable. We take everything our process kicks out. We do this otherwise we would no longer be objective, we would be inserting our decision making into the process – what could possibly go wrong?! We also do this because the big profitable move lurks somewhere in those trades we take. They are there. We wait for the them; for the market to come to us: we don’t force anything.

Translation: we could be sitting on the same amount at the end of 2020, or maybe a little less. So, be it. We stick to our process.

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

We had an open trade in the ETF SSO for some time. We were finally stopped out at the end of the week. Let’s look at the chart.

SSO

We entered this trade based on our rules at $70.28 with a trailing stop set just under support at $4.37 under the purchase price. As the price moved up, the stop moved with it. A high of $84.16 anchored the stop at $79.79, which is where we were stopped out.

$79.79 – $70.28 = $6.65 profit per share X 400 shares = $2,660.00

Nice work by us!

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

UGL

The markings on the chart are from the most recent trade. As you can see, the blue (21) and red (8) EMAs are above the green EMA (55), the price has fallen below the blue and the red. We need the price and or the red EMA to rise above the blue EMA to consider a trade.

We consider the trend to be UP using the definition of the blue being above the green. This means we will only take the long trade for this symbol. Once the price or the red has crossed (CLOSED) above the blue we would place a stop-buy just above that close. Next step is to look to the left for 60 days. Is there a higher price within that time window? If there is we would term it resistance and need a close above that level for our adjusted stop-buy.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

UCO

It looked for awhile as if oil had finished consolidating and was ready for a run at the big time. But that is why we don’t act on “looks like”, only actually crosses and closes.

Even though the price for UCO closed above resistance, we never got a rise above that price to trigger our trade. The price has now fallen back to the extent, we need to take a look at the inverse, SCO.

SCO

Look at that! The price has risen above the blue. The blue is below the green indicating a downtrend which would usually mean no trade. The exception we allow is if the ROC in the upper pane is above the 0 line. It is, so we have a stop-buy in on this symbol that rises as the price of oil declines. That stop-buy is at $17.27. If triggered, our trailing stop would be at $14.25. If triggered, all details of the position would be detailed here.

20 year treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

TBT

As you look in wonder at the right hand side of the chart, you can see that our EMAs have all done their work. We are set for a trade. We look to the left and can see resistance at $16.27. We need a close above that level. We would then place a stop-buy just above the close.

In the meantime, we shall sit patiently for those events to unfold.

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UDN

UDN is currently our only open trade. We got in according to our process around position 1 at $20.67 with a trailing stop of .51 cents. The most recent high of $21.37 has anchored that stop at $20.86. The lowest point was $ 21.07 – 21 more cents to decline before we are stopped out. More importantly, this means that even if the prices collapses on us we are profitable: the trade is risk – free, it is a beautiful thing.

To get a better understanding of why buying above resistance is important, take a look at my book. Or not, you can just accept that is the way of it. Nothing wrong with that.

If you have any questions, please drop me a line at:

charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

Link to book and video package and FREE BOOKS:

https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round – Up to August 27th, 2020

Link to book/video/Free book learning package:

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To the business at hand. This trading record is updated during the week if there are trades: number of shares, stops, etc.

However, at the weekend, it all kicks off with a review of all charts and an update of the portfolio.

The portfolio that started at $100,000 on January 1st, 2020 now sits at $140,257.10. All trades are recorded in my book or on this blog.

Lets start with the BIG LAD…

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

We currently have an open position in the SSO with a trailing stop currently anchored at $4.37 below the high of $80.48. We purchased this symbol at $70.28 which means that even if the price were to collapse, we would make a profit ($80.48 – $4.37 = $76.11 stop out price, $76.11 – $70.28 = $5.83 profit per share).

To the chart Robin…

SSO

There is nothing more to do here except watch and cheer the trade on.

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

We were in UGL and then stopped out. We are now watching for the price to rise and mop up the overhead supply that represents resistance. These are sturdy traders/investors who bought all the way up and could be now vowing to get out as soon as the price gets back to their buy in price. I want that supply dissipated before entering a trade.

UGL

I have left the markings from the trade we did have. You see the high just before we were stopped out. I like to look to the left as we fulfil our trade conditions. If there is a higher price within the last two months, my buy goes just above the high of the candle that closes above that level.

Other conditions have been met. The blue EMA is above the green EMA. The price has dropped below the blue and then gone back. This is enough for us to buy. It looks like our price will be in the low eighties by the time that resistance level is cleared.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

UCO

The UP ETF for oil has been flirting with trade. We had a level of resistance to clear thanks to the zone of resistance created by the falling window to the left.

We have our conditions met with a close above resistance and even though blue is below green, our ROC is above zero.

We currently have a stop-buy in at $34.83

20 Year Treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

I did a blog post yesterday because it demonstrated the routine you should be following. The UBT was being watched because we had a trade that was stopped out. There is always the possibility that a new trigger will develop.

UBT added another down candle that caused us to take a look at the inverse: TBT.

TBT

You can see that around position 1, the moving averages have done their work. We have a level of resistance at $16.27 within our two month look back window.

I jumped the gun a little in my last post. We still need a close above $16.27. We would then place a stop-buy just above the brave little candle that CLOSED above resistance.

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UDN

UDN represents the U.S. Dollar struggling against a basket of global currencies. As the dollar weakens, UDN rises. If the dollar strengthened against the basket, we would be looking at UUP.

We have an open trade in UDN. You can see around position 1 that all conditions were met: blue (21 EMA) above green (55 EMA) = uptrend (one definition) and the red (8 EMA) and the price rose above the blue and resistance. We bought in at $20.67. We have a .51 trailing stop which has been anchored by the high of $21.32 at $20.81. Since our purchase price was $20.67, this trade is also risk free if the price were to collapse. Look at us.

I want to repeat that we take all trades that our process kicks out in these five instruments. If we did not, we are no longer objective. We have inserted ourselves into the decision making. This is not a good thing because over and over again, we have proven to be the weakest link.

Also, it bears repeating that we are in the world of trades. The temptation is to try and figure out why 20 year treasuries are weakening or the dollar is struggling. This would put us back into the trading world.

Since our success is more likely in the world of trades, we don’t give a toss. The reasons are immaterial to us, let others feel better figuring it out.

Link again: https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

My email address: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com. I will be most happy to answer any trading questions you may have.

TTFN,

Charles

Market Close August 27th, 2020

As both of you know this is a theoretical trading exercise that commenced in my Basic Trading blockbuster of a book. We use only one simple method and five underlying instruments that cover a broad sweep of the market place. This exercise started with $100,000 and now sits a little over $140,000.

It will continue until 2020 mercifully expires.

Those underlying instruments are typically futures which most of you cannot see except as prices. We use ETFs (exchange traded funds) as proxies in the market. There are ten of them. For each instrument there is one that will rise as the futures rise and one that will rise as the futures decline. This means that they can be used in retirement accounts, or accounts that have some restrictions on them.

I wanted to demonstrate today how this works. We had a position in UBT – the ETF for 20 year treasuries rising. We were stopped out. We keep an eye on this chart, as we do the others, but there is a chance that the stop-out could have been a mere correction: we may see a new trade trigger. In this case, well, let’s look at the chart.

UBT

On the right hand side of this chart you can see that rather than heading back up, this symbol seems to be headed down.

This, then, becomes the time we look at the inverse which is TBT.

TBT

As you can see the price on TBT – the ETF that rises as the underlying instrument declines – is at a trade stage. Before we review that I want to point out that investors in the “trading world” are at this moment trying to figure what could declining 20 treasuries possibly mean. They will listen to “experts” wax on, spouting nonsense because as an expert they are supposed to know. And, dammit, they will have an opinion. I have actually heard an expert give a reason for oil prices rising and then the very next day, give the same reason for oil prices declining.

We do not live in the magical-thinking trading world, we reside in the world of trades. If we get a trade signal based on our process, we place it. What it all means, we leave to others.

To our trade. We have the moving averages doing their work. We can see that the price and the red (8 EMA) have crossed above the blue (21 EMA). Our rules allow for us to look at the ROC as the decider if the blue has not yet crossed above the green (55 EMA), we are ok if the ROC is above the 0 line. It is. We now want to clear the level of resistance that halted the upward price move.

Our stop-buy is placed at $16.33. This is a few pennies above the $16.27 resistance level. (We don’t place trades at even numbers).

OK, make sure you come back Monday to take a look at the “Weekly Round-Up” – could be a scorcher.

Any questions: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round-Up to August 21, 2020

I am trying my hand at a video weekly round-up.

For those of you new to this blog, it is a continuation of a theoretical trading exercise started in my blockbuster book:

Basic Trading: ‘ A Beginner’s Guide to Trading and Investing…PROFITABLY!’

We started at the beginning of January, 2020 and continued until April 30th, 2020 when the book went up on Amazon.

I thought it might be helpful to continue the exercise on this blog until 2020 expires.

For those of you working with the book seeing the trades unfold here might be helpful.

We started with $100,000 and now as of writing, we find ourselves with a balance of: $140,257.10.

All trades are listed in the book or on this blog.

You can take a look at my offer by clicking the following link:

https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

It is a book/video combo…

Onto to my self-directed video ( James Cameron was busy)…

Well, I think that is all from me.

TTFN,

Charles