Weekly Round-Up to November 27th, 2020

The Weekly Round-Up…is there anything more exciting?!

I don’t think so, let’s get started.

There is a legend at the top that explains the bulk of what goes on here.

This week we have a couple of trades to confirm and provide details of at least one of them.

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

GLL

If you would cast your peepers to the right hand side of the chart above can see our process has been met.

1 – blue EMA (21) is above the green EMA (55) confirming our set up: the trend; it is UP.

2 – The trigger: the red EMA (8) and/or the price has CROSSED above the blue EMA to confirm we are a go.

3 – We now look to the left for a higher price than the trigger price. It usually represents resistance, which usually means a bit of a roadblock to our trade. That resistance is shown by a black horizontal line at $33.50.

(my book examines why resistance and support are so important as we place our trades)

We need a CLOSE above that line, which we get.

4 – Our stop-buy is placed just above the candle that closed above resistance at $35.15.

5 – That price is passed and consequently we are triggered into the trade, at which time a stop-sell is placed at $30.52 (red horizontal line).

6 – Details: 10% of the portfolio is $14,000; 2% is $2,800

$14,000/$35.15 = 398.29, rounded to 400 shares

Trailing stop starts at: $30.52

Risk = $35.15 – $30.52 = $4.63 X 400 shares = $1,852 (<2%)

All systems are a go. We wish our little trade “god speed”.

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

SSO

SSO is our stock market proxy for the S&P 500 rising. A trade was triggered per our process and the details revealed here.

Just to update you. The high to the right hand side of $86.17 has anchored the trailing stop at $81.61. Should the price fall back and touch this level, we will be stopped out automatically.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

UCO

Not much to report here. Oil has been in a cage fight for a while for a number of reasons we don’t give a toss about.

UCO represents the rise in oil on the stock market. If we get set – up and trigger, we shall enter a trade without giving it a second thought.

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UDN

UDN represents the weakening of the U.S. Dollar against a basket of global currencies.

As you can see all of our process steps have been met.

A stop-buy is in as we speak just above the top of the candle that closed above resistance at $ 21.41. If the price rises above this level we shall be triggered in. A stop-sell will be placed at $21.16 to protect our rear ends. It will be a tailing stop because these are volatile times.

20 Year treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

TBT

Not much to see here either, we can move along.

As discussed before we examine both sides of the market instrument. The UP and the DOWN. We use the down proxy because many of you do not have accounts that can cope with the short side of the market. We can benefit from something declining by going long in our proxy.

That’s it for me. Any questions, please drop me a line at: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com.

If you are interested take a look at my training webinar. You can sign up at:

https://tradingmadeeasy.gr8.com/

TTFN,

Charles

Update to November 26th, 2020

This post is to update a trade and while we are at it taking a look at one that is pending.

Let’s take a look at the trade that triggered. First the chart and then the details.

SSO is our ETF stock market proxy for the UP side of the S&P 500

SSO

First of all, a quick review of the process. We have the blue EMA (21) is above the green EMA (55), Uptrend = Set up.

Next the trigger: the price and or the red EMA (8). Based on those things we are set to go. Next step is to look left for levels that are higher since they represent resistance.

There are choices. Resistance at $81.97 or $83.66. I am a cautious fellow, so I am going with the higher level. I need a CLOSE above $81.97. This occurs in the yellow box. At that time I put in a stop-buy just above the high at $85.63.

The trade trigger occurs just to the right.

The trailing – stop is $81.07, just under support.

Details:

$142,200/10% = $14,220/$85.63 = 166.06 rounded to 165 shares

Risk = 165 X $4.56 ($85.63-$81.07) = $752.40 (<$2,844 ($142,200 x 2%).

All our process parameters were met, so the trade is a go.

We will now leave this trade alone until it is stopped out.

We have a pending trade in GLL, our stock market proxy for the downside of gold.

GLL

As you look at the right hand side of the chart above, you can see that the moving averages have done their work admirably: identifying the trend and then triggering. The only pause is caused by a level of resistance as represented by a horizontal black line at $33.50.

The high of the lonely candle is at $34.90. The stop- buy is at $85.63.

If the market moves through that level, we will be triggered in automatically.

Any questions, drop me a line: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com.

TTFN,

Charles

Market Close November 23rd, 2020

Here we are at last: all that silliness behind us, perhaps we can get back to work.

First up is a trade update. As you may remember we had an open trade in TBT during that pesky election thingy.

Well, no more, sadly we were stopped out.

Here’s how it ended.

The high in TBT got to $17.26. Our trailing stop was $1.13 under the purchase price which means the high anchored the stop at $16.13.

$16.47 (purchase price) – $16.13 (stop out price) = .34 X 850 shares = ($289) Loss.

So our updated portfolio now stands at: $142,130.90

We are now back into our regular routine. If any trades occur, they will be updated here, followed by the weekend round-up when we look at all of our charts – all five of them!

In the meantime if you are looking for some excitement you can take a look at my Trading and Investing Masterclass. Go here to register your email and the link will be sent to you. You can view it any old time you please.

https://tradingmadeeasy.gr8.com/

Any questions about anything at all from your investing world, please drop me a line: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com.

TTFN,

Charles

Random Brilliant Comments about the Experts and the Markets…

November 17th, 2020

When last we spoke I mentioned that I would have some wise words with respect to the prognostications of experts and headlines in general as they relate to trading.

There have been views – maybe countless – as to which winner of the interminable U.S. election will have what effect on the markets. Honestly, if you are an investor or trader, you shouldn’t care.

One of the arrows in the quiver of a consistent trader ( and I include investors who believe themselves to be different and superior because they are taking a longer view) is process.

It is at times like this that it becomes your saving grace, your anchor. Process keeps you on the straight and narrow. It stops you from doing things that “feels right” at the time.

I can tell you that even the most seasoned trader who should have learned his lesson will still wander into the quagmire of doing something that later he will beat himself up for: indulging his emotions.

Experts have views on the price of this or that because they are experts. When someone asks them where they think the price of gold is going they better have an opinion if they want to retain the title of “expert”.

I learned a bit about experts a number of years ago when an expert expressed a view as to why the price of oil had fallen that day. The very next day he was asked why he thought oil had risen on that day, he expressed the same reason.

The real reason, as a trader, you should not be paying any attention to experts or headlines is that you have no idea how much of that information has already been priced into whatever.

The market is a giant, living, breathing thing (don’t worry, it is not under your bed). It takes information and assimilates it based on all the emotions you can think of and expresses its view in the price – the final arbiter.

Don’t look to logic to help you. It has no place in the markets; no place in trading.

Headline: “Gold is going to $3,000”. What are you going to with that information? Go out and buy gold toute de suite (that’s French for toute de suite). Think of the average person who did so. They are not as lucky as you and are following a process. They see gold doing this or that and don’t whether to stay or go because they got in without reason that made any sense.

Don’t be that trader or investor.

If you want help with your process, drop me a line: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com.

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round-Up to November 13th, 2020

Alrighty, now that the trading stand down period is over we can get back to work.

Biden is now President. The headlines have been what will this one or that one do to the markets. First of all, we don’t care. Most traders do not. I am going to flesh out some reasons tomorrow.

For now we are getting on with a look at our charts and see what has been going on there while you lot have had your feet up.

Let’s start with the S&P 500…

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

SSO

The SSO is our proxy in the stock market for the S&P rising.

We can see that our moving averages have told us that the trend is UP (blue above green) and that the trigger – price and the red- have signalled a buy.

When we cast our eyes to the left to check for higher levels that would be resistance, we find it at $83.66.

We don’t want to get into a trade just to have it bounce back from that level. The more certain trade is to wait for a break of resistance. We like to stack the probabilities in our favour, and this is one of the ways we do it.

We are now waiting for a CLOSE above $83.66. Not just a cross – it is an important distinction.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

UCO

As most of you know Oil took a mighty fall earlier in the year and has been struggling ever since.

UCO still shows as in a downtrend (blue under green). There is nothing to see here just yet.

As an aside the SCO symbol has been checked just to make sure there is nothing going on with respect to the inverse.

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

UGL

Gold held great promise back in the summer. The headlines were all excited about its inevitable rise to $3,000.

Comments tomorrow will include such things as these headlines.

Gold has meandered sideways for sometime. This is the style it has had for a number of years. I know this, but it is not important for you to know it to trade it: just follow your process.

From our process we can see that gold is in a downtrend and that there is no action to be taken here.

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UDN

Again we find all systems go from our moving averages, but resistance holds us back. We need a close above $21.32 before moving any closer to a trade in this symbol.

20 year Treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

TBT

TBT is our proxy in the market for shorting 20 year Treasuries.

It is, at this time, our only open position. We have a trailing stop of $1.13 behind the highest price achieved. That was $17.28. This means our stop has been anchored at $16.15. Therefore, if the price falls and touches this level we are out of the trade.

We entered this trade at $16.47 with $1.13 per share of risk. The price has risen taking our stop up with it. Our risk is now .32 a share. We would still suffer a loss, but it has been lessened.

Our portfolio now sits at $142,419.90.

Exciting news! I have a webinar coming at the end of the week. It will give you information and explain the trading method we have been using here in a bit more detail. It is FREE!

Click here to sign up: https://tradingmadeeasy.gr8.com/

That does it for today. Any questions? Drop me a line at: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com.

TTFN,

Charles

November 5th, 2020

“Remember, Remember the 5th of November, the Gun Powder treason and plot.

I can think of no reason that the Gun Powder treason should ever be forgot”.

Me either, considering the calibre of government most countries enjoy these days.

I mentioned that this week is a stand down week as far as trading is concerned. I find that trading in a week when volatility can raise its ugly head at any time is more folly than anything else.

And you know how serious I am when I use the word, “folly”.

I wanted to show you an old chart that I use to demonstrate a couple of points in my genius book available on Amazon. If you buy it, drop me a line and I will send you a copy where the formatting does not get messed up by Kindle.

To the chart, Robin…

This chart of Gold demonstrates how once support has been broken that it reverses polarity and becomes resistance. The market will often come back and test the newly minted change.

The price broke through support and then returned to sniff the new resistance level. This is the set up for a lovely short sell. I was indeed short as the market fell away.

You can see a giant candle wick that stopped me out in the overnight. and then continued down. That was the night Trump was elected in 2016 (makes sign of the cross).

I simply went back to my short position. Some would say that if I didn’t have a stop, I would have made a bit more.

I may indeed, but stops have saved my bacon more than once.

If you place a trade, place a stop at the same time!

Any questions, please drop me a line: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round-Up to October 30th, 2020

Sorry to be a disappointment to “Weekly Round-UP” fans. I want both of you to hear the reason for no Round-Up this week before doing something rash.

This is election week in the U.S. and is consequently providing us with an object lesson.

The markets will be unpredictable. It is a time when I suggest that most traders stand down. There will be many who will feel that they can call any volatility and make their fortune with some shrewd trades.

I wish them well, and I want you to understand that it is not that I doubt some will do it. They will, but it will be pure B.S. luck.

That idea of placing trades on chance goes against the very core of what I am trying to teach here. It is tough enough to maintain discipline as it is without using Lady Luck as an indicator.

Some people have to learn their lessons by being bitch-slapped by the market. Don’t be one of those.

We know that the market -the broad markets, especially- are living breathing things because they are made up of all of us. That is our hopes, fears and emotions generally are the driving forces in the market. This means that the market has already priced in what it believes the outcome of the election to be.

If the market does not move much, it means that was the outcome anticipated. If there is a large move, the opposite.

The problem is we cannot be sure of any of these things.

So, we have an open position in TBT with a trailing stop. I shall leave that untouched.

We will not be entering any trades this week. Don’t fret, I have ideas to fill the void, so keep an eye out for posts on this site.

As always, if you have any questions about the investment world, or your trading in particular. I am even prepared to chat with you on the phone if you wish. No agenda or obligations – drop me a line: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com.

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round-Up to October 23rd, 2020

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The Weekly Round – Up is upon us yet again. Those of you new to this most exciting time of the week need to strap in for the roller-coaster you are about to ride.

We have a legend of sorts at the top to give you some idea what is going on here.

We will start with our open position and the trade that closed at the tail end of the week.

The open position is TBT which represents the 20 year treasuries declining. The most recent high is $16.98. The trailing stop was placed $1.13 under the purchase price when we entered this trade. This means the the most recent high has anchored our stop-out price at $15.85. Should the price decline and touch that level we will be stopped out per our process.

In the meantime we will close our eyes, hold our breath and hope that that doesn’t happen – it is how all the best traders do it.

To our closed out position. This was a trade we opened per our process in SSO. This symbol mimics the rise in the S&P 500.

We purchased at $77.41 with a stop at $5.70 under that price. As we may recall, were triggered in by the finest of margins. The high that occurred after that was $81.97. If we subtract $5.70 from that level we get a stop out price of $76.27 or a loss of (-$205.20).

or: $77.41 – $76.27 = $1.14 X 180 shares = $205.20 loss

Our updated portfolio after registering the loss: $142.419.90

This represents a gain of a little over 42% since January 1, 2020. We will continue this exercise of 5 symbols, one simple method until this year mercifully expires. At that time I will keep going, adding patterns and trading with indicators per my course which will launch soon.

To be notified of the webinar giving details as well as actionable stock trading information, click:

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The first 100 to buy module One of three will receive 50% off in exchange for feedback and testimonials (optional, of course).

Let’s get to our charts…

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

SSO

SSO is the ETF that mimics the rise in the S&P 500. We use ETFs as proxies because sometimes we wish to profit from the underlying instrument declining. The problem doing that is that many account types esp. retirement accounts, do not permit it.

As described at the outset we were stopped out of SSO late in the week for a loss. If we get a buy signal again, we shall get back in.

If a trade is triggered by way of a pattern described in my book and new course, I will detail it here – just for fun. It won’t count – good or bad – towards the portfolio. Just as a demonstration.

We will watch for the moment, our hands under our behinds.

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

UGL

UGL as with its inverse, GLL has been running sideways for awhile now. You can see that the EMAs (exponential moving averages) have gathered together totally abandoning social distancing.

As time passes the resistance level to the left is losing significance. We are waiting here as well. Patience is a key component of trading. You don’t need to trade every day. One of the silly things that traders do is to place a trade due to the frustration of waiting.

As they say in the U.K., “Wait for it….”

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

SCO

The markings for a previous trade are still shown, but there has not been much happening here for quite a while. It is worth mentioning that the lion’s share of the gain this year was the “big one” given to us by the huge decline in the price of oil.

We are sitting on our hands here as well – I am running out of hands!

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UDN

While the Dollar Index and the next combatant, the 20 year treasuries are not going to quicken anyone’s pulse, it is important to note why they are here.

The selection of the symbols to follow was based on all elements of the market place.

Stocks – market cycle

Oil and Gold – inflation cycle

Dollar Index and 20 year treasuries – interest rate cycle

In other words the symbols chosen all react to different economic stimuli. We usually have something going on somewhere within this group.

UDN, which represents the decline of the Dollar Index, or the weakening of the U.S. dollar versus a basket of global currencies is showing the makings of a trade.

We have the blue EMA (21) above the green EMA (55) which indicates an uptrend in this exercise. Since we only trade with the trend, we are looking for a trigger to buy this symbol. We have the price and the red EMA (8) above the blue EMA. Our only impediment at this point is the level of resistance represented by the horizontal black line.

We need another close above that to take action per our process. Should that occur we would place a stop-buy just above the high of the candle that did the CLOSING. Note the capitals to indicate the importance of closing as opposed to crossing and sneaking back over when we are not looking.

20 year Treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

TBT

This is our only open trade at this time, as described at the top of this post.

The high on October 23rd has anchored a stop-out at $15.85.

Until we are stopped out by our trailing stop, we can only wish our little trade god-speed.

That is about it for me. If you have any questions, please drop me a line at: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com. Or if you would like to chat on the phone at any time about your trading. I would be most happy to do so – no charge.

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round-Up to October 16th

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Here we are once again at the weekly round up. This is the time of the week that we take a look at all the charts whether there is trading activity of not.

I know you are anxious so let’s get started.

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

SSO

It just so happens that we have an open trade for this symbol. The horizontal lines show you that we entered the trade at $77.41. Our trailing stop was set at $71.71. This was $5.70 under the trade price.

As you may recall a trailing stop is one of those wonderful tools that protect us in the markets. I would usually use static stops, but this year has been so volatile and unpredicable, I use the trailing version. I will probably do so until the end of the year.

If I were a new trader or one that is struggling, I would employ a trailing stop at all times.

The trailing-stop like the faithful sherpa has followed the price up to $81.97 where it camped. This meant that our stop was anchored at $76.27 . Now we wait, all atingle, to see if we are stopped out or if the price is going for the next level.

Should we be stopped out, I shall report here in full detail, as always.

As an aside, the value of the trailing stop is on full view here. We started this trade with $5.70 per share of risk. The stop moved up and at its anchor point has reduced our risk to $1.14 per share (High of $81.97 – stop value $5.70 = $76.27)

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

GLL

GLL is the proxy in the stock market for gold declining: GLL rises like the Dark Knight as gold declines. As you will recall we use this type of symbol so that you can benefit from the underlying instrument declining without going short. Many accouts do not allow such evil.

Not much happening here. The moving averages have gathered. We can discern that the trend is down because the green EMA (55) is the highest.

We can also see that there is a low to no probability that there is any point in looking at the inverse symbol: UGL. It will probably have that flat look also.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

UCO

UCO is our proxy for oil rising. Oil continues to base, consolidate, waffle, whatever you want to call what oil is doing. It isn’t anything we can sink our trader’s teeth into.

In this type of situation we just sit on our hands and wait for a signal that agrees with our process.

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UUP

You will recall from our mini lesson regarding the ROC and its predictive powers that can happen from time to time when it decides to favour us with a signal.

If you do, you will also remember that as a leading indicator, the ROC, gave us a shout that maybe the UUP was thinking of rising. The verical black line is at a low point in the price, but not the lowest point in the ROC.

The price began to show life.

Unfortunately it was not enough for us. We can be annoyingly demanding. Even though the red EMA (8) and the price rose above the blue EMA (21), the green EMA (55) was still above the blue indicating a downtrend. And one of our rules is not to struggle against the current. We will wait for our engine to fire on all cylinders.

It is interesting to note that the ROC trading method I teach would have triggered us into a trade. All conditions having been met on that front.

This would cause a question in my trading workshops, “which method should we use?” The answer is the one that triggers first and then you follow the rules for that system.

We are sticking to one method only for this exercise as I attempt to prove a point. It shall continue until this year expires.

20 Year Treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

TBT

I know, your hearts are all aflutter as we deal with treasuries. The reason we include treasuries and the Dollar index in our stable of trading horses is diversification. If you review the underlying instruments we cover you will find it is a broad swathe of the market place.

You can use these symbols exclusively. Because of their negative correlation (good thing), there will almost always be something going on because they react to different economic stimuli.

TBT is the other open trade we have.

The trailing stop was $1.13 under the purchase price of $16.47. The price has fallen back since we were triggered in. Which, by the way, was literally by a hair. Our stop out is $15.44.

We shall keep our fingers and toes crossed (even though we have to walk funny – it is a sacrifice traders make). that the price recovers.

That is it for me. Watch for an announcement that there will soon be a complete trading course available to you, courtesy of me – you are most welcome.

Click here if you want a course outline. A popout box will politely ask for your email address. I shall make sure you get one and details to a webinar that will make it irresistable to you.

https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

Drop me a line if you have any questions about the above, or, indeed, from your investing world.

charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles