Close of Markets, April 16th, 2020

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Let’s rock and roll…

A reminder: the cornerstone of our decision making is the interaction of three EMAs (exponential moving averages), red (8), blue (21) and brown (55). As mentioned yesterday I am going to add a bit more from by basic tools quiver as we go.

We are also only following 6 symbols.

S&P 500: This chart is still in a bit of a limbo. The 55 is above the 8 and the 21 while the price is between the brown and the red. This chart still needs a little unfolding to do before we act.

Let’s get serious and take a look at the Point and Figure chart.

S&P 500

This is a little outside of the realm of simple or basic. As far as a beginner is concerned, but the chart itself is utter simplicity: it is supply and demand only, no time. You would be amazed at what all those hugs and kisses are telling us.

Let’s relate it to the candle chart. You can see that a single defiant X has popped its head above the down trend line, thereby breaking it. A number of upside counts have been established. All we need now is another column of Xs to form and we will be in business. The fact that the Xs and Os are on a rising trend line is also a good thing. I thought it might be interesting to see if a buy trigger occurs on the Point and Figure close to the time, if and when, we get a buy from our faithful EMAs.

Gold: Gold did fall back a bit. As we always do we look at the futures first and then switch to a stock market proxy. The UGL, in this case is an ETF (exchange traded fund). The high of $65.47 established April 14th anchored our trailing stop in place $5.18 below. The price had a low today of $60.73. Not low enough to stop us out.

Oil: The futures contract for oil triggered a short sell by way of the EMAs, but then did not give us the same assurances on the chart of our stock market proxy, SCO. So we will remain patient for the moment. Oil has been dancing around a support level of $20 for a little while now.

USD/EUR: this pair is still in an uptrend: the 8 is above the 21 and they are both above the 55. We were almost stopped out of our stock market proxy, EUO. We saw an up day today and continue on in this trade.

Bitcoin: A cryptocurrency that has issued a short sell in the futures as the price is below the 8 which is below the 21 which is below the 55. The stock market proxy GBTC, however, has not triggered a sell yet. Our stop-sell is perched just below the bottom ledge of a rising window, as the Japanese refer to it, or gap as those from these parts term it. This area is often support, or resistance if a falling window. I did not want to place a trade just to have it bounce off of support.

Apple: this stock has a very similar pattern to the S&P above. The 55 and the 8 are stuck together above the 21 and the price is above them all. We have a stop- buy in place at $289.

As always, as trades are executed, the chart, number of shares per our discipline, protective-stop placement are all detailed.

Any questions or comments, drop me a line:

The next post, sometime over the weekend, will have all the charts and clever comments as well as an update to the portfolio.

Until then, TTFN,


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