The weekly look at all our symbols whether there is a trade or not. Our portfolio ended on April 30th in the Basic Trading book. This blog continues that exercise and will do so until 2020 has expired.
It started out at $100,000 and is currently nestled at: $138,528.90. This is purely a theoretical exercise for teaching purposes only. Do not construe anything you read here as investment advice.
Let’s get started.
S&P 500: ETFs UP SSO DOWN SDS
The S&P 500 has rebounded from a steep and fierce decline. I have placed a Fibonacci retracement tool over the decline. My concern is that there is another leg down. Well, not really a concern. We are going to place our trades based on what the charts tell us, not something as nebulous as “our concerns”.
We shall assume we are in for another downleg as long as the current rebound does not exceed 70% of the decline. Also, I pay attention to divergences. In the case of the ROC, it is not matching the price with a new high. (new high in 60 days). The RSI is having trouble getting up enough drive to exceed 60, which you will note it has done in the past for nice upsides.
We, however, live in the world of trades and stick our tongues out at the trading world. I entered a trade that was to the upside, despite all we have just looked at because that was the signal in our world of trades.
The SSO trade is still alive and kicking. You can see from the horizontal lines on the chart representing a level of resistance and support. We placed our buy at 1 and protective stop at 2. The stop is the trailing variety. If we are stopped out, details and portfolio update will be reported.
Gold: ETFs UP UGL DOWN GLL
UGL is the only other trade we have open as of writing. We needed our moving average conditions to be met and for a close above the horizontal line at $61.57 at 1. The protective stop is at 2. Scroll down to previous days for full details.
Oil: ETFs UP UCO DOWN SCO
We are looking at UCO because it looked closest to giving us a trade.
We have five instruments we look at as represented in the stock market by ETFS. Each instrument having an UP ETF and a DOWN ETF. Look at both. If you have a buy in one, you can skip the inverse.
As you can see in the chart the price looks like it wants to close above the 21 EMA (blue). Oil is still in a downtrend based on our blue is below green set up. When and if the market confirms matters by CLOSING above the 21 EMA, we may act. If the ROC is above the 0 – line at the time, or gets there on a closing basis within three days, we are good to go. Our next concern is nearby resistance. The next level is at $35.58. Not an immediate concern.
U.S. Dollar Index: ETFs UP UUP, DOWN UDN
I am showing the UP version of the Dollar index. Both charts are betwixt and between. There are no trade signals per our method at the moment.
20 year treasuries: ETFs UP UBT DOWN TBT
I put support and resistance levels on this chart because there was a point a few days ago that our moving average conditions were met, I needed a close above resistance at position 1 to pull the trigger.
This is where we learn patience. It is important to wait for the market to confirm our trade before acting.
That does it for this Round-Up. If you have any questions or comments, please send them to: firstname.lastname@example.org.