Weekly Round-Up to November 13th, 2020

Alrighty, now that the trading stand down period is over we can get back to work.

Biden is now President. The headlines have been what will this one or that one do to the markets. First of all, we don’t care. Most traders do not. I am going to flesh out some reasons tomorrow.

For now we are getting on with a look at our charts and see what has been going on there while you lot have had your feet up.

Let’s start with the S&P 500…

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

SSO

The SSO is our proxy in the stock market for the S&P rising.

We can see that our moving averages have told us that the trend is UP (blue above green) and that the trigger – price and the red- have signalled a buy.

When we cast our eyes to the left to check for higher levels that would be resistance, we find it at $83.66.

We don’t want to get into a trade just to have it bounce back from that level. The more certain trade is to wait for a break of resistance. We like to stack the probabilities in our favour, and this is one of the ways we do it.

We are now waiting for a CLOSE above $83.66. Not just a cross – it is an important distinction.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

UCO

As most of you know Oil took a mighty fall earlier in the year and has been struggling ever since.

UCO still shows as in a downtrend (blue under green). There is nothing to see here just yet.

As an aside the SCO symbol has been checked just to make sure there is nothing going on with respect to the inverse.

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

UGL

Gold held great promise back in the summer. The headlines were all excited about its inevitable rise to $3,000.

Comments tomorrow will include such things as these headlines.

Gold has meandered sideways for sometime. This is the style it has had for a number of years. I know this, but it is not important for you to know it to trade it: just follow your process.

From our process we can see that gold is in a downtrend and that there is no action to be taken here.

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UDN

Again we find all systems go from our moving averages, but resistance holds us back. We need a close above $21.32 before moving any closer to a trade in this symbol.

20 year Treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

TBT

TBT is our proxy in the market for shorting 20 year Treasuries.

It is, at this time, our only open position. We have a trailing stop of $1.13 behind the highest price achieved. That was $17.28. This means our stop has been anchored at $16.15. Therefore, if the price falls and touches this level we are out of the trade.

We entered this trade at $16.47 with $1.13 per share of risk. The price has risen taking our stop up with it. Our risk is now .32 a share. We would still suffer a loss, but it has been lessened.

Our portfolio now sits at $142,419.90.

Exciting news! I have a webinar coming at the end of the week. It will give you information and explain the trading method we have been using here in a bit more detail. It is FREE!

Click here to sign up: https://tradingmadeeasy.gr8.com/

That does it for today. Any questions? Drop me a line at: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com.

TTFN,

Charles

November 5th, 2020

“Remember, Remember the 5th of November, the Gun Powder treason and plot.

I can think of no reason that the Gun Powder treason should ever be forgot”.

Me either, considering the calibre of government most countries enjoy these days.

I mentioned that this week is a stand down week as far as trading is concerned. I find that trading in a week when volatility can raise its ugly head at any time is more folly than anything else.

And you know how serious I am when I use the word, “folly”.

I wanted to show you an old chart that I use to demonstrate a couple of points in my genius book available on Amazon. If you buy it, drop me a line and I will send you a copy where the formatting does not get messed up by Kindle.

To the chart, Robin…

This chart of Gold demonstrates how once support has been broken that it reverses polarity and becomes resistance. The market will often come back and test the newly minted change.

The price broke through support and then returned to sniff the new resistance level. This is the set up for a lovely short sell. I was indeed short as the market fell away.

You can see a giant candle wick that stopped me out in the overnight. and then continued down. That was the night Trump was elected in 2016 (makes sign of the cross).

I simply went back to my short position. Some would say that if I didn’t have a stop, I would have made a bit more.

I may indeed, but stops have saved my bacon more than once.

If you place a trade, place a stop at the same time!

Any questions, please drop me a line: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round-Up to October 30th, 2020

Sorry to be a disappointment to “Weekly Round-UP” fans. I want both of you to hear the reason for no Round-Up this week before doing something rash.

This is election week in the U.S. and is consequently providing us with an object lesson.

The markets will be unpredictable. It is a time when I suggest that most traders stand down. There will be many who will feel that they can call any volatility and make their fortune with some shrewd trades.

I wish them well, and I want you to understand that it is not that I doubt some will do it. They will, but it will be pure B.S. luck.

That idea of placing trades on chance goes against the very core of what I am trying to teach here. It is tough enough to maintain discipline as it is without using Lady Luck as an indicator.

Some people have to learn their lessons by being bitch-slapped by the market. Don’t be one of those.

We know that the market -the broad markets, especially- are living breathing things because they are made up of all of us. That is our hopes, fears and emotions generally are the driving forces in the market. This means that the market has already priced in what it believes the outcome of the election to be.

If the market does not move much, it means that was the outcome anticipated. If there is a large move, the opposite.

The problem is we cannot be sure of any of these things.

So, we have an open position in TBT with a trailing stop. I shall leave that untouched.

We will not be entering any trades this week. Don’t fret, I have ideas to fill the void, so keep an eye out for posts on this site.

As always, if you have any questions about the investment world, or your trading in particular. I am even prepared to chat with you on the phone if you wish. No agenda or obligations – drop me a line: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com.

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round-Up to October 23rd, 2020

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The Weekly Round – Up is upon us yet again. Those of you new to this most exciting time of the week need to strap in for the roller-coaster you are about to ride.

We have a legend of sorts at the top to give you some idea what is going on here.

We will start with our open position and the trade that closed at the tail end of the week.

The open position is TBT which represents the 20 year treasuries declining. The most recent high is $16.98. The trailing stop was placed $1.13 under the purchase price when we entered this trade. This means the the most recent high has anchored our stop-out price at $15.85. Should the price decline and touch that level we will be stopped out per our process.

In the meantime we will close our eyes, hold our breath and hope that that doesn’t happen – it is how all the best traders do it.

To our closed out position. This was a trade we opened per our process in SSO. This symbol mimics the rise in the S&P 500.

We purchased at $77.41 with a stop at $5.70 under that price. As we may recall, were triggered in by the finest of margins. The high that occurred after that was $81.97. If we subtract $5.70 from that level we get a stop out price of $76.27 or a loss of (-$205.20).

or: $77.41 – $76.27 = $1.14 X 180 shares = $205.20 loss

Our updated portfolio after registering the loss: $142.419.90

This represents a gain of a little over 42% since January 1, 2020. We will continue this exercise of 5 symbols, one simple method until this year mercifully expires. At that time I will keep going, adding patterns and trading with indicators per my course which will launch soon.

To be notified of the webinar giving details as well as actionable stock trading information, click:

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The first 100 to buy module One of three will receive 50% off in exchange for feedback and testimonials (optional, of course).

Let’s get to our charts…

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

SSO

SSO is the ETF that mimics the rise in the S&P 500. We use ETFs as proxies because sometimes we wish to profit from the underlying instrument declining. The problem doing that is that many account types esp. retirement accounts, do not permit it.

As described at the outset we were stopped out of SSO late in the week for a loss. If we get a buy signal again, we shall get back in.

If a trade is triggered by way of a pattern described in my book and new course, I will detail it here – just for fun. It won’t count – good or bad – towards the portfolio. Just as a demonstration.

We will watch for the moment, our hands under our behinds.

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

UGL

UGL as with its inverse, GLL has been running sideways for awhile now. You can see that the EMAs (exponential moving averages) have gathered together totally abandoning social distancing.

As time passes the resistance level to the left is losing significance. We are waiting here as well. Patience is a key component of trading. You don’t need to trade every day. One of the silly things that traders do is to place a trade due to the frustration of waiting.

As they say in the U.K., “Wait for it….”

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

SCO

The markings for a previous trade are still shown, but there has not been much happening here for quite a while. It is worth mentioning that the lion’s share of the gain this year was the “big one” given to us by the huge decline in the price of oil.

We are sitting on our hands here as well – I am running out of hands!

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UDN

While the Dollar Index and the next combatant, the 20 year treasuries are not going to quicken anyone’s pulse, it is important to note why they are here.

The selection of the symbols to follow was based on all elements of the market place.

Stocks – market cycle

Oil and Gold – inflation cycle

Dollar Index and 20 year treasuries – interest rate cycle

In other words the symbols chosen all react to different economic stimuli. We usually have something going on somewhere within this group.

UDN, which represents the decline of the Dollar Index, or the weakening of the U.S. dollar versus a basket of global currencies is showing the makings of a trade.

We have the blue EMA (21) above the green EMA (55) which indicates an uptrend in this exercise. Since we only trade with the trend, we are looking for a trigger to buy this symbol. We have the price and the red EMA (8) above the blue EMA. Our only impediment at this point is the level of resistance represented by the horizontal black line.

We need another close above that to take action per our process. Should that occur we would place a stop-buy just above the high of the candle that did the CLOSING. Note the capitals to indicate the importance of closing as opposed to crossing and sneaking back over when we are not looking.

20 year Treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

TBT

This is our only open trade at this time, as described at the top of this post.

The high on October 23rd has anchored a stop-out at $15.85.

Until we are stopped out by our trailing stop, we can only wish our little trade god-speed.

That is about it for me. If you have any questions, please drop me a line at: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com. Or if you would like to chat on the phone at any time about your trading. I would be most happy to do so – no charge.

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round-Up to October 16th

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Here we are once again at the weekly round up. This is the time of the week that we take a look at all the charts whether there is trading activity of not.

I know you are anxious so let’s get started.

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

SSO

It just so happens that we have an open trade for this symbol. The horizontal lines show you that we entered the trade at $77.41. Our trailing stop was set at $71.71. This was $5.70 under the trade price.

As you may recall a trailing stop is one of those wonderful tools that protect us in the markets. I would usually use static stops, but this year has been so volatile and unpredicable, I use the trailing version. I will probably do so until the end of the year.

If I were a new trader or one that is struggling, I would employ a trailing stop at all times.

The trailing-stop like the faithful sherpa has followed the price up to $81.97 where it camped. This meant that our stop was anchored at $76.27 . Now we wait, all atingle, to see if we are stopped out or if the price is going for the next level.

Should we be stopped out, I shall report here in full detail, as always.

As an aside, the value of the trailing stop is on full view here. We started this trade with $5.70 per share of risk. The stop moved up and at its anchor point has reduced our risk to $1.14 per share (High of $81.97 – stop value $5.70 = $76.27)

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

GLL

GLL is the proxy in the stock market for gold declining: GLL rises like the Dark Knight as gold declines. As you will recall we use this type of symbol so that you can benefit from the underlying instrument declining without going short. Many accouts do not allow such evil.

Not much happening here. The moving averages have gathered. We can discern that the trend is down because the green EMA (55) is the highest.

We can also see that there is a low to no probability that there is any point in looking at the inverse symbol: UGL. It will probably have that flat look also.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

UCO

UCO is our proxy for oil rising. Oil continues to base, consolidate, waffle, whatever you want to call what oil is doing. It isn’t anything we can sink our trader’s teeth into.

In this type of situation we just sit on our hands and wait for a signal that agrees with our process.

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UUP

You will recall from our mini lesson regarding the ROC and its predictive powers that can happen from time to time when it decides to favour us with a signal.

If you do, you will also remember that as a leading indicator, the ROC, gave us a shout that maybe the UUP was thinking of rising. The verical black line is at a low point in the price, but not the lowest point in the ROC.

The price began to show life.

Unfortunately it was not enough for us. We can be annoyingly demanding. Even though the red EMA (8) and the price rose above the blue EMA (21), the green EMA (55) was still above the blue indicating a downtrend. And one of our rules is not to struggle against the current. We will wait for our engine to fire on all cylinders.

It is interesting to note that the ROC trading method I teach would have triggered us into a trade. All conditions having been met on that front.

This would cause a question in my trading workshops, “which method should we use?” The answer is the one that triggers first and then you follow the rules for that system.

We are sticking to one method only for this exercise as I attempt to prove a point. It shall continue until this year expires.

20 Year Treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

TBT

I know, your hearts are all aflutter as we deal with treasuries. The reason we include treasuries and the Dollar index in our stable of trading horses is diversification. If you review the underlying instruments we cover you will find it is a broad swathe of the market place.

You can use these symbols exclusively. Because of their negative correlation (good thing), there will almost always be something going on because they react to different economic stimuli.

TBT is the other open trade we have.

The trailing stop was $1.13 under the purchase price of $16.47. The price has fallen back since we were triggered in. Which, by the way, was literally by a hair. Our stop out is $15.44.

We shall keep our fingers and toes crossed (even though we have to walk funny – it is a sacrifice traders make). that the price recovers.

That is it for me. Watch for an announcement that there will soon be a complete trading course available to you, courtesy of me – you are most welcome.

Click here if you want a course outline. A popout box will politely ask for your email address. I shall make sure you get one and details to a webinar that will make it irresistable to you.

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Drop me a line if you have any questions about the above, or, indeed, from your investing world.

charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round-Up to October 9th, 2020

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Alright, the weekly round up. At least we had some action during the week, so the withdrawal symptoms shouldn’t be too bad for you.

Let’s get started as we often do with the big kahuna, the S&P.

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

SSO

We have twice the excitement as we also had a trade triggered on Friday.

As mentioned in an earlier post all systems were go for a trade. A stop-buy was placed for $77.41. The market obliged us by hitting that level and triggering our stop-buy.

Details:

$14,000 (10% of the portfolio) / $77.41 = 180.85, rounded to 180 shares.

Protective stop is placed just under support at $71.71.

Risk = $77.41 – $71.71 = $5.70 X 180 shares = $1,026 (< $2,800 (2% of portfolio))

We are all set. Our process has been followed to the letter.

All we can do now is wish our little trade, ” god speed”!

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

UGL

Gold is an example of why the investors who inhabit the trading world get themselves into trouble. How many of them went ahead and invested in gold based on the headlines that it and Alice were going to the moon.

Wait for your signals; follow your process. Even if the moving averages do their job, we still have a level of resistance to take into account.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

UCO

I am displaying the ETF that is the proxy for oil rising. I could have shown the ETF for oil declining, it has been that kind of side ways, indecisive time for oil. Ah, well, we will sit on our hands (your own hands, please) until there is something definitive to act on.

20 Year Treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

TBT

We were triggered into a trade for TBT, the stock market proxy for treasuries declining earlier in the week. As you will remember the charm of these symbols is that they can rise as the underlying instrument declines. It allows any stock account to buy them, despite restrictions that can exist around retirement accounts – for example.

It hasn’t been that convincing. The stop-buy was triggered by a candle wick that teased our $16.47 stop. Ah, well, what can a po’ boy do but take every trade as kicked out by the process.

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UDN

The Dollar Index is a bit different in that it’s rise and fall are determined by a battle between the U.S. Dollar and a weighted basket of global currencies.

UDN represents the U.S. Dollar declining against the basket and obviously the UUP, the opposite.

There is nothing here for us just yet. We do not ponder the whys and wherefores of the U.S. Dollar. As Jake Bernstein has said, ” ours is not to wonder why, ours is but to sell and buy”.

If you wish to live in the world of trades where the 10% of profitable traders reside, heed those words.

That’s it for me. If you have any questions, please drop me a line: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles

Market Close October 8th, 2020

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Look at me working my poor little fingers to the bone because there has been a development in our charts.

There is something that I realize I have not mentioned for a while. I can’t help but feel responsible for that oversight, mainly because it is me that didn’t mention it.

Most of the symbols (8 out of 10) that we use for this exercise are double-ups. This means that if the S&P 500 were to rise 1%, the SSO would rise 2%.

If the S&P declines 1%, the SSO would decline 2%.

We use our protective stops with every trade we make, but you can see how that importance is magnified with these symbols.

We are actually taking a look at the SSO this evening.

To the chart Robin…

SSO

As both of you know, SSO is our stock market proxy for the S&P 500 rising.

We did have a trade on the rise and were stopped out. Now we watch both symbols – UP & DOWN – for our next trigger. It could be with SDS as the trend switches to down, or it could be back into SSO as the trend continues up with a correction having taken place.

The blue EMA (21) is above the green EMA (55) telling us the uptrend is still intact. Since we always trade with the trend (this business is already tough enough without swimming against the current), we look to the long side to match.

The price and the red EMA (8) have had a nice little break dipping below the blue EMA. By crossing back above the blue, it has told us to giddyup.

Now that the moving averages have told us to enter a trade, we look to the left for a higher price. There is one at $76.68. This is resistance. We need our price to CLOSE above that level, or we take the risk that our price will bounce off the resistance (it is not just a clever name, after all).

You can see that today we got that CLOSE above the resistance level and we have put in a stop-buy just above the brave little candle that did the closing at $77.41.

If that price is hit we are in. Details will be shared here: position size, stop and risk level.

That’s it for me. Any questions about this (remember I am just giving you what you need to trade, the book and the videos go a little deeper), or your trading world, drop me a line: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com.

TTFN,

Charles

Market Close October 7th, 2020

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A post during the week can only mean one thing: a trade has been triggered.

Let’s get right to the chart.

TBT

I had previously reported that TBT – our stock market for 20 year Treasuries declining in price – had done all it needed for us to put in a stop-buy.

Let’s review our check list.

  • Blue EMA (21) is above the green EMA (55). This one of our definitions of trend. Blue over green means uptrend.
  • The price and the red EMA (8) which were below the blue, but have now crossed above acts as our trigger.
  • We now look to our left for any price higher than the candle that closed above the blue EMA
  • We have one so that we place our stop-buy just above that “resistance” level at $16.47
  • The price took a little meander across the buy line and as a result – even though it dashed back again – triggered us in.
  • Our trailing stop begins life just under support at $15.34, or $1.13 under the trade price.

Details:

10% of the portfolio = $14,000/$16.47 = 850.03, rounded to 850 shares.

Risk = $16.47 – $15.34 X 850 shares = $960.50 (<$2800 (2% of portfolio))

We have an open trade per our process. All we can do now is wish it, “God Speed, little trade”.

If you have any questions about the trade or anything from your trading world, please drop me a line.

charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles

Market Close October 5th, 2020

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The close provided us with some fodder. Let’s take a look.

TBT

TBT is our ETF proxy in the stock market for 20 year treasuries declining. Since most of you have accounts that don’t allow shorting, we use this symbol to profit as the treasuries themselves decline.

You can see on the right hand side of the chart a significant jump.

The checklist for our trade process:

Price or red EMA (8) has closed above the blue EMA (21) – check

The blue EMA is above the green EMA (55) uptrend – check

Look to the left. Is there a higher price in the most recent 30 days?

There is a higher price a little more than 30 days, but you have to use you loaf. It is prudent to get a CLOSE above recent resistance.

We have a stop-buy in at $16.47.

If the market obliges and triggers us in, details will appear here.

SSO

SSO is our stock market proxy for the S&P 500 rising. As you can see, the price has crossed above the blue EMA, the blue was above the green EMA – uptrend.

We look to our left and see a recent high at $76.68.

In this case we are waiting for a CLOSE above that level to enter a stop-buy.

Next steps -if any- for both symbols will be detailed here.

Any questions re: the above, or anything in your investing world, drop me a line, charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles