Weekly Round – Up to September 11th, 2020

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It is that most exciting part of the week: the Round-up. I know you are both as excited as I am, so let’s get started. I usually kick things off with the Big Lad: the S&P 500, but let’s mix things up a little and start with the open positions.

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

The Dollar Index is an arm wrestle between the U.S. Dollar and a weighted basket of global currencies.

If the price moves up, the U.S Dollar is strengthening, if down, the basket is in ascendency.

Our open position is in UDN which represents the U.S. dollar weakening versus the basket.

UDN

Our position in UDN was opened sometime ago. If you are curious you can scroll down for the date, etc.

The trailing stop is .51 behind the trade price. It has followed the price as it moved up. Once it stopped moving up, the trailing stop anchored at that price.

The high since purchase is $21.37. This means that the stop is anchored at $20.86. We purchased at $20.67. It also means that if the price falls causing us to be stopped out at $20.86, we would still have a profit. This trade is currently risk free, which is also known as a beautiful thing.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

SCO

As you can see from the chart above, the price closed above resistance and we put in a stop-buy just above the high of that close. We were triggered in at $17.27 with a trailing stop just under support at $3.02 lower than the trade.

The most recent high was $19.64, anchoring our stop at $16.62.

As with UDN, we are still in this trade, but with a bit more needed to become risk free. You will, however, notice that the move up has taken some of the risk premium off the table. We had a risk of $3.02, it is now .65 per share.

I take no view about the prospects for oil. As I have said, if you want to become a more consistent trader, there is a requirement to take all trades your process kicks out. If you do not, you have left the world of trades and entered the trading world: a haphazard place filled with uncertainty and doubt. Don’t do it!

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

SSO

The stop out point for a recent trade is still showing on the chart. The blue EMA is still above the green EMA, which in this simple demonstration equals uptrend.

The price has pushed down below the blue EMA. If it crosses back above, we shall be on alert as some of our process will have been covered. The last bit will have to be a close above resistance. This is represented by the high around $85. If, however, any EMA crosses below the green EMA, we shall have a look at the inverse of the SSO, the SDS.

In the meantime, we shall demonstrate one of the key traits of a profitable trader: patience.

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

UGL

I have left the markings from a recent trade on the chart. Much like the S&P, the price fell below the 21 EMA (blue). If that should change – and it might, because we are still in an uptrend – we would need a close above the resistance at $77.07 to cause us to spring panther-like into action.

20 year Treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

To the chart…

TBT

I know, I know, 20 year treasuries are hardly a pulse quickener. I have selected instruments that cover a broad swathe of the market. The cylinders of the market engine are not all up – or down – at the same time. Economic factors impact each of our chosen in different ways. They are not all correlated. They don’t all move up and down at the same time, with the same intensity. This means that there is always somewhere for us to place a trade. I didn’t want you guys sitting around for too long with nothing to do – you might do something stupid.

The chart above shows us that the EMAs are having a meeting and will make a decision as to which way to go. If the red EMA (8) or the price separated from the rest of the pack to the downside, we shall look to the inverse and see if something has developed there.

Actually, I don’t usually wait. I take a look, like now…

To the chart, Robin…

UBT

Here is the inverse of TBT, the ETF representing the down of the 20 year treasuries. UBT, as you can see is in an uptrend. The price retreated below the 21 EMA (blue). Should the price rise above the blue and then close above resistance, we would switch our attention from TBT to UBT.

Again, patience…

The portfolio that started January 1st, 2020 at the sum of $100,000 is now: $142,917.10. A gain of a little over 42%. I don’t annualise this because it implies that we can keep up the same rate until the end of the year.

We focus on our process and whatever comes out of the end of that sausage grinder, so be it. The market moves in an explosive manner. The comforting averaging that many resort to is a waste of time.

Our position is that we could be at this same level come the end of the year, or we could drop back – so be it. We don’t push things. We let the market and our trades come to us.

If you need a better understanding of some of the concepts mentioned here, take a look at my book.

https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

I also offer at this time a free no-obligations chat on the phone regarding your trading and any challenges you maybe having. No obligations on your part.

This window only opens once and awhile.

Copy and paste to book a call.

https://fb.com/book/blackpanthertrading/

or if that link doesn’t work, drop me a line at:

charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles

Market Close September 8th, 2020

https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

A tad behind with this update. As mentioned in the Weekly Round-Up, the short side of oil represented capably by the ETF SCO was all set for a buy. We had a stop-buy in at $17.27, which was a few cents over the high of the candle that sealed the deal.

Chart, please…

SCO

You can see the green candle to the right of the chart and our stop – buy level. The trade was then triggered during the day of the 8th.

Details:

$14,000 (10% of portfolio) / $17.27 = 810.65, rounded to 800 shares

Trailing stop set at $3.02 under purchase price X 800 shares = $2,416 risk (<2% of portfolio).

Our trade is open at this point having met all the conditions of our process including capital allocation and risk management.

God Speed, little trade!

Any questions, comments, drop me a line at: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round – Up to September 4th, 2020

https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

Alrighty, then, let’s get started. We don’t usually go week to week to week with nothing in between. But it has been that kind of time.

Portfolio update: We started January 1st, 2020 with $100,000. We now (after updating for the trade close out at the end of the week) is now: $142,917.10.

While this is a nice return, I want to remind you that market moves are explosive and unpredictable. We take everything our process kicks out. We do this otherwise we would no longer be objective, we would be inserting our decision making into the process – what could possibly go wrong?! We also do this because the big profitable move lurks somewhere in those trades we take. They are there. We wait for the them; for the market to come to us: we don’t force anything.

Translation: we could be sitting on the same amount at the end of 2020, or maybe a little less. So, be it. We stick to our process.

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

We had an open trade in the ETF SSO for some time. We were finally stopped out at the end of the week. Let’s look at the chart.

SSO

We entered this trade based on our rules at $70.28 with a trailing stop set just under support at $4.37 under the purchase price. As the price moved up, the stop moved with it. A high of $84.16 anchored the stop at $79.79, which is where we were stopped out.

$79.79 – $70.28 = $6.65 profit per share X 400 shares = $2,660.00

Nice work by us!

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

UGL

The markings on the chart are from the most recent trade. As you can see, the blue (21) and red (8) EMAs are above the green EMA (55), the price has fallen below the blue and the red. We need the price and or the red EMA to rise above the blue EMA to consider a trade.

We consider the trend to be UP using the definition of the blue being above the green. This means we will only take the long trade for this symbol. Once the price or the red has crossed (CLOSED) above the blue we would place a stop-buy just above that close. Next step is to look to the left for 60 days. Is there a higher price within that time window? If there is we would term it resistance and need a close above that level for our adjusted stop-buy.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

UCO

It looked for awhile as if oil had finished consolidating and was ready for a run at the big time. But that is why we don’t act on “looks like”, only actually crosses and closes.

Even though the price for UCO closed above resistance, we never got a rise above that price to trigger our trade. The price has now fallen back to the extent, we need to take a look at the inverse, SCO.

SCO

Look at that! The price has risen above the blue. The blue is below the green indicating a downtrend which would usually mean no trade. The exception we allow is if the ROC in the upper pane is above the 0 line. It is, so we have a stop-buy in on this symbol that rises as the price of oil declines. That stop-buy is at $17.27. If triggered, our trailing stop would be at $14.25. If triggered, all details of the position would be detailed here.

20 year treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

TBT

As you look in wonder at the right hand side of the chart, you can see that our EMAs have all done their work. We are set for a trade. We look to the left and can see resistance at $16.27. We need a close above that level. We would then place a stop-buy just above the close.

In the meantime, we shall sit patiently for those events to unfold.

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UDN

UDN is currently our only open trade. We got in according to our process around position 1 at $20.67 with a trailing stop of .51 cents. The most recent high of $21.37 has anchored that stop at $20.86. The lowest point was $ 21.07 – 21 more cents to decline before we are stopped out. More importantly, this means that even if the prices collapses on us we are profitable: the trade is risk – free, it is a beautiful thing.

To get a better understanding of why buying above resistance is important, take a look at my book. Or not, you can just accept that is the way of it. Nothing wrong with that.

If you have any questions, please drop me a line at:

charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

Link to book and video package and FREE BOOKS:

https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round – Up to August 27th, 2020

Link to book/video/Free book learning package:

https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

To the business at hand. This trading record is updated during the week if there are trades: number of shares, stops, etc.

However, at the weekend, it all kicks off with a review of all charts and an update of the portfolio.

The portfolio that started at $100,000 on January 1st, 2020 now sits at $140,257.10. All trades are recorded in my book or on this blog.

Lets start with the BIG LAD…

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

We currently have an open position in the SSO with a trailing stop currently anchored at $4.37 below the high of $80.48. We purchased this symbol at $70.28 which means that even if the price were to collapse, we would make a profit ($80.48 – $4.37 = $76.11 stop out price, $76.11 – $70.28 = $5.83 profit per share).

To the chart Robin…

SSO

There is nothing more to do here except watch and cheer the trade on.

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

We were in UGL and then stopped out. We are now watching for the price to rise and mop up the overhead supply that represents resistance. These are sturdy traders/investors who bought all the way up and could be now vowing to get out as soon as the price gets back to their buy in price. I want that supply dissipated before entering a trade.

UGL

I have left the markings from the trade we did have. You see the high just before we were stopped out. I like to look to the left as we fulfil our trade conditions. If there is a higher price within the last two months, my buy goes just above the high of the candle that closes above that level.

Other conditions have been met. The blue EMA is above the green EMA. The price has dropped below the blue and then gone back. This is enough for us to buy. It looks like our price will be in the low eighties by the time that resistance level is cleared.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

UCO

The UP ETF for oil has been flirting with trade. We had a level of resistance to clear thanks to the zone of resistance created by the falling window to the left.

We have our conditions met with a close above resistance and even though blue is below green, our ROC is above zero.

We currently have a stop-buy in at $34.83

20 Year Treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

I did a blog post yesterday because it demonstrated the routine you should be following. The UBT was being watched because we had a trade that was stopped out. There is always the possibility that a new trigger will develop.

UBT added another down candle that caused us to take a look at the inverse: TBT.

TBT

You can see that around position 1, the moving averages have done their work. We have a level of resistance at $16.27 within our two month look back window.

I jumped the gun a little in my last post. We still need a close above $16.27. We would then place a stop-buy just above the brave little candle that CLOSED above resistance.

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UDN

UDN represents the U.S. Dollar struggling against a basket of global currencies. As the dollar weakens, UDN rises. If the dollar strengthened against the basket, we would be looking at UUP.

We have an open trade in UDN. You can see around position 1 that all conditions were met: blue (21 EMA) above green (55 EMA) = uptrend (one definition) and the red (8 EMA) and the price rose above the blue and resistance. We bought in at $20.67. We have a .51 trailing stop which has been anchored by the high of $21.32 at $20.81. Since our purchase price was $20.67, this trade is also risk free if the price were to collapse. Look at us.

I want to repeat that we take all trades that our process kicks out in these five instruments. If we did not, we are no longer objective. We have inserted ourselves into the decision making. This is not a good thing because over and over again, we have proven to be the weakest link.

Also, it bears repeating that we are in the world of trades. The temptation is to try and figure out why 20 year treasuries are weakening or the dollar is struggling. This would put us back into the trading world.

Since our success is more likely in the world of trades, we don’t give a toss. The reasons are immaterial to us, let others feel better figuring it out.

Link again: https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

My email address: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com. I will be most happy to answer any trading questions you may have.

TTFN,

Charles

Market Close August 27th, 2020

As both of you know this is a theoretical trading exercise that commenced in my Basic Trading blockbuster of a book. We use only one simple method and five underlying instruments that cover a broad sweep of the market place. This exercise started with $100,000 and now sits a little over $140,000.

It will continue until 2020 mercifully expires.

Those underlying instruments are typically futures which most of you cannot see except as prices. We use ETFs (exchange traded funds) as proxies in the market. There are ten of them. For each instrument there is one that will rise as the futures rise and one that will rise as the futures decline. This means that they can be used in retirement accounts, or accounts that have some restrictions on them.

I wanted to demonstrate today how this works. We had a position in UBT – the ETF for 20 year treasuries rising. We were stopped out. We keep an eye on this chart, as we do the others, but there is a chance that the stop-out could have been a mere correction: we may see a new trade trigger. In this case, well, let’s look at the chart.

UBT

On the right hand side of this chart you can see that rather than heading back up, this symbol seems to be headed down.

This, then, becomes the time we look at the inverse which is TBT.

TBT

As you can see the price on TBT – the ETF that rises as the underlying instrument declines – is at a trade stage. Before we review that I want to point out that investors in the “trading world” are at this moment trying to figure what could declining 20 treasuries possibly mean. They will listen to “experts” wax on, spouting nonsense because as an expert they are supposed to know. And, dammit, they will have an opinion. I have actually heard an expert give a reason for oil prices rising and then the very next day, give the same reason for oil prices declining.

We do not live in the magical-thinking trading world, we reside in the world of trades. If we get a trade signal based on our process, we place it. What it all means, we leave to others.

To our trade. We have the moving averages doing their work. We can see that the price and the red (8 EMA) have crossed above the blue (21 EMA). Our rules allow for us to look at the ROC as the decider if the blue has not yet crossed above the green (55 EMA), we are ok if the ROC is above the 0 line. It is. We now want to clear the level of resistance that halted the upward price move.

Our stop-buy is placed at $16.33. This is a few pennies above the $16.27 resistance level. (We don’t place trades at even numbers).

OK, make sure you come back Monday to take a look at the “Weekly Round-Up” – could be a scorcher.

Any questions: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round-Up to August 21, 2020

I am trying my hand at a video weekly round-up.

For those of you new to this blog, it is a continuation of a theoretical trading exercise started in my blockbuster book:

Basic Trading: ‘ A Beginner’s Guide to Trading and Investing…PROFITABLY!’

We started at the beginning of January, 2020 and continued until April 30th, 2020 when the book went up on Amazon.

I thought it might be helpful to continue the exercise on this blog until 2020 expires.

For those of you working with the book seeing the trades unfold here might be helpful.

We started with $100,000 and now as of writing, we find ourselves with a balance of: $140,257.10.

All trades are listed in the book or on this blog.

You can take a look at my offer by clicking the following link:

https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

It is a book/video combo…

Onto to my self-directed video ( James Cameron was busy)…

Well, I think that is all from me.

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round-Up to August 14th, 2020

Welcome to the Weekend Round-UP!

It is that time of the week when we take a look at at least one chart per instrument we are following.

This is a theoretical exercise that continues on from my mammoth best-seller: Basic Trading: ‘A Beginner’s Guide to Trading and Investing…PROFITABLY!’ Luckily for you, available here:

https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

In that gem of writing and information we started with a theoretical portfolio of $100,000 on January 1st, 2020 and traded five market instruments until the book was published at the end of April. To prove a point and to let any who need it see the trades unfold, we will continue until 2020 expires.

We use 5 major market sectors that cover a lot of the market and then we use ETFs (exchange traded funds) as proxy. This allows the average person to buy and sell in retirement accounts, etc.

Our method is one of elegant simplicity which will be splained as we go along.

Trades are reported here in detail as they occur between these weekly updates.

At the tail end of the week we were stopped out of one of our trades, so we shall start there.

Portfolio Balance at the start of the week: $140,720.10.

20 Year Treasuries: UP = UBT, Down = TBT

UBT

UBT is the ETF that represents the long side of 20 year treasuries. Our trade opened per our process at $135.89. The trailing stop was $16.04 under that trade price. As you can see the price rose to a high of $147.30. This anchored the trailing stop, that followed the price up, at $131.26. Once the price fell away, we were stopped out at that price.

The net result was:

$135.89 – $131.26 = $4.63 X 100 shares = ($463 loss).

Subtracted from our portfolio, the balance is: $140,257.10

I want to mention as some of you see the 40% gain to date on our portfolio, and maybe extrapolate to the end of the year – don’t do that. The market moves in spurts. This maybe all we see for the year, or maybe we fall back a little.

Bottom line is we stick to our objective process and don’t try to force matters. We let the instruments we are trading come to us.

We will look at gold next.

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

UGL

UGL mimics the rise in gold. GLL the decline. This means that if gold declines, GLL will rise like the Dark Knight.

This chart has markings from a trade we were in and then stopped out of at a profit.

Let’s go through the steps:

In the large yellow box you can see that the blue line (21 exponential moving average) is above the green line (55 EMA). This means uptrend in our simple world. You can guess what the opposite means.

Our trigger is the red line (8 EMA) or the price crossing above the blue line.

So, we have a trigger. We look to the left for about two months (don’t stay where you are for two months – I meant in chart time), is there a higher price than the one that CLOSED above the blue line. Note, it is important that the price CLOSE above the 21, not just cross and scamper back. There is at $64.39. That is resistance. We need a close above that line. We get it and place a stop-buy in just above that close. We are triggered in the smaller yellow box. A trailing stop is immediately placed just under support at $8.48 under the trade price.

The price has a nice little run to the upside and then falls away and we are stopped out at $10 per share profit. Well done us!

The next question is what are we watching for to get back in? You in the back, any ideas?

Yes, very good, that high that you see represents resistance or in this case overhead supply. Some people bought on the way up and then stayed with it as it pulled back. They are cursing their stupidity and have vowed to get out if that price should rise again.

We need that selling pressure to be dissipated before we go back.

We shall sit on our hands in the case of gold until that happens – if it does.

Onward…

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

UCO

Oil has a very flammable character (see what I did there?). It dropped like the proverbial rock (which gave us most of this year’s return). It has been consolidating for quite a while. Our initial roadblocks to a trade are still in place, though an exception may kick in in this case. We will examine it if that is what occurs. This exception is in our process in the book.

We were waiting for a close above the zone of resistance you can see on the chart, which UCO kindly provided.

We have a stop-buy in at $34.83 for UCO

Dollar Index: UDN = DOWN, UUP = UP

The dollar index represents a slightly different battle. If it rises, it means the U.S. Dollar is rising against a basket of global currencies and we would want UUP. If it declines, it means the global currencies are strengthening against the dollar and we would want UDN.

To the chart, Robin…

UDN

The chart shows where we entered the trade after our moving averages lined up and the resistance line was vanquished. Don’t use the high of a random spike that you see near the start of the resistance line. There is no telling what trader craziness caused that. Where possible, I try not to use the break down of the price as my high. I try for the high of an UP candle.

Our trailing stop is .51 behind the price and we are still in this trade. The recent high was $21.24. Subtract the stop and we get $20.73. This is above the trade price of $20.67. This means that even if the price collapses we are risk free at this point.

As we have talked about, we are aiming for the risk-free zone and celebrate when we get to it for obvious reasons. It also means if we get enough push back i.e. the price goes back across the 21, but we don’t get stopped out, then the price heads back up, we begin to quiver. Not because we have seen a spider, but rather because we may have a chance to pyramid: add to the existing position without taking on more risk.

This is what we are doing with our initial trades: probing, but not in an X-files kinda way, until we get on a trend that we can ride.

We want to be in place should a Big Move occur, and occur they do. That is why we are patient and take every trade our process kicks out. It is a little tougher using trailing stops to pyramid, but things are so volatile at the moment and likely to remain that way for awhile, we shall remain that way for awhile.

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

SSO

Not much to say here. We have an open trade. You can see the moving averages line up after a push back and then the price closes back across the blue line (21 EMA). Looking to the left we see a higher price at the horizontal black line. We got in at the red line just above the close above resistance. This trade is still in place.

I think that is enough for this week. If you have anything you want to ask me about the foregoing, or anything in the investment world, drop me a line. If I don’t know the answer, I shall make something up.

charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles

Market Close August 11th, 2020

This blog is a theoretical trading exercise that started in my mammoth best seller: Basic Trading: ‘ A Beginner’s Guide to Trading and Investing…PROFITABLY!’

Available by clicking here: https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

And has been continued on this page.

I only report trades during the week: whether we are buying or selling, position size, stops, profit or loss and revised portfolio balance.

We have one today as we were stopped out of our gold position. The other three open positions all took a hit, but none of them enough to stop us out.

Let’s look at the chart…

UGL

UGL is the stock market proxy for gold (UP). We were triggered into our trade at the yellow box: $65.37. At the time we placed a trailing-stop just under support at $8.48 under the trade price.

A trailing stop follows the price up like a faithful Sherpa. If the price falls back, the stop is anchored in place, as in the case of UGL at $8.48 under the highest price achieved after purchase.

The highest price was $83.85 – stop of $8.48 = stop out at $75.37. I am no Jethro, but when I finished ciphering I reckoned the profit equalled exactly $10 profit for each of the 200 shares we purchased which equals a total profit on this trade of $2,000.

Our portfolio which started January 1st, 2020 at $100,000 now stands at: $140,720.10.

Our next step is to wait and see what happens. If UGL turns and crosses back across the blue EMA (21), we would look to get back in again. Our problem is overhead supply. This is created by the folks that bought on the way up and are currently holding losing positions.

They will want to get out as the price reaches (if) their buy-in price. This is called resistance. We would want that selling pressure to dissipate before we buy again. That price would be somewhere around $83.

That does it for now. Drop me a line if you have any questions about the foregoing, or the trading world at all.

TTFN,

Charles

Weekly Round UP to August 7th, 2020

Well, here we are again my fine feathered friends, the Weekly Round Up…Welcome!

As you both know, this blog is a continuation of a theoretical trading exercise started in my mammoth best-seller: Basic Trading: ‘ A Beginner’s Guide to Trading and Investing…PROFITABLY!’

Available here with a series of videos:

https://abeginnersguidetotradingandinvesting.gr8.com/offer_page.html

The portfolio started at $100,000 and traded only five instruments using proxies in the stock market. We employ a very simple moving average cross over system, but adhere strictly to our process. We live in a world of trades as opposed to a trading world.

At the time of writing, the portfolio stands at $138,720.10. A nice return, so far, but as I say repeatedly, we could be still at that level at the end of the year when this blog will cease. The markets move in spurts. We could easily have seen the lot for us for this year. If so, fine. We will not chase anything to make stuff happen, that way lies doom (I may also stop watching Lord of the Rings).

We usually only update this blog when a trade has taken place.

At this time of the week, though, we take a look at all the charts, regardless.

Let’s get started and certain things will be ‘splained as we go along.

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN. These are two of the ETFs I mentioned. They can be obtained in any account. There is no need to short anything. If you get a signal that the S&P 500 is going to decline, you buy SDS, which will rise like the Dark Knight as the S&P declines.

To the chart, Robin…

SSO

You can see from the chart that our EMAs (exponential moving averages) did their work well. The blue (21) was above the green (55) indicating an uptrend – per our rudimentary system. To trade with the trend, which is almost always the best course of action, we need the red EMA (8) or the price to cross above the blue EMA (21) to enter a trade. We were delayed a little because there was a level of resistance, as represented by the black horizontal line. Once we had a close above that level, we placed a stop-buy just above the high of the brave little candle that did the closing. The market then moved past our stop-buy which changed it to a market buy order and we are in.

A trailing stop (protective) was placed just under support, $8.74 under the trade price.

The latest high is $146.75. If we subtract $8.74 from that number we get $138.01. Our purchase price was $140.56. The trailing stop has already eaten up some of our risk.

Gold: UGL = UP, GLL = DOWN

UGL

It is almost the same scenario. Yep, deja vu all over again. A level of resistance needed to be conquered and it was, a stop-buy was placed just above that close and the yellow box shows you where this trade was triggered.

We bought at: $65.37. The trailing stop was placed $8.48 below the trade price. The latest high was $83.85. This means our worse case on this one if the price collapses is to be stopped out at $75.37. Which at this point is exactly $10.00 per share profit.

Oil: UCO = UP, SCO = DOWN

UCO

Oil has closed above our resistance zone. We have a stop- buy in place at $34.83. If the price for UCO rises above that level, the stop-buy will become a market buy order and we shall be in.

If that happens, details will appear here: position size, stop placement, etc.

20 Year Treasuries: UBT = UP, TBT = DOWN

UBT

The same scenario played out here. We purchased at $135.89. The trailing stop was placed just under support at $16.04 below the trade price. The latest high was $147.30, meaning our stop is anchored at, $131.26. We still have a little risk in this one.

Dollar Index: UUP = UP, UDN = DOWN

UDN

This is getting repetitive, but same thing again. We entered this trade at $20.67 with a stop placed .51 below the trade price. The latest high for this symbol was: $21.24. So, $21.24 – .51 = $20.73. Since we purchased at $20.67, if there was a total collapse of this stock we would be stopped out with a bit of a profit.

Our conclusion for today is that we find ourselves with open trades in four of the five major sectors we cover and a pending trade for the fifth (oil).

If you have any questions about the above or the investing world at all, please drop me a line: charlesgoddard2020@gmail .com.

TTFN,

Charles

Market Close August 6th, 2020

We added a new trade yesterday. That gives us 4 open trades of the five instruments we follow. Oil has also closed above resistance meaning if the price rises above $34.72 (UCO = UP for oil) we will be triggered in.

Before we look at the chart and details for the latest trade to trigger, I want to mention that it may seem unusual to have so many symbols active since there are different economic forces that act on each one. This has occurred because some of our symbols represent the underlying instruments declining.

If all the underlying instruments were going up, we would have to wonder.

Let’s take a look at our newest…

S&P 500: SSO = UP, SDS = DOWN

SSO

If you remember from the Round up, I mentioned that the price of SSO needed to rise above $140.56 to trigger a trade. This was because there had been a close above a resistance level.

Here are the details of our trade:

$28000 (20% of portfolio)= 199.2, rounded to 200 shares.

Trailing stop is placed at $136.01, which translates to the following risk:

200 shares X $8.74 (140.56-136.01) = $1,748 (< $2,800)

Godspeed, Little Trade…

While we are here, let’s have an update on the open trades:

UGL: stop $8.48 New high $83.85 Trade is RISK FREE

UDN stop $.51 New high $21.24 Trade is RISK FREE

UBT stop $16.04 New high $ 147.30 Trade still in danger zone

As a reminder, the reason trades are risk free is due to the trailing stops following the price up as it climbed. When the price stops climbing, and maybe declines a little, the stop is anchored in place. Risk free means that if the price were to suddenly collapse, there would be no loss, and a little to a lot of profit.

The other question you probably have is why are the position sizes 20% of the portfolio, when we started the rule was 10%. The reason is that we are using trailing stops due to the volatility. Having said that, we are staying with 2% maximum risk per trade.

I think that does it for now. Next instalment will be the weekly round-up. Try to contain yourself.

If you have any questions or concerns, please drop me a line at: charlesgoddard2020@gmail.com

TTFN,

Charles